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Canada

Winnipeg South


MP: Terry Duguid (LPC)

Latest projection: June 1, 2025
LPC safe

Recent electoral history | Winnipeg South


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 59% ± 8% 42.9% 48.1% 59.0% CPC 35% ± 8% 37.7% 32.7% 35.1% NDP 5% ± 3% 14.2% 14.3% 4.6% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 3.3% 0.8% GPC 1% ± 1% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.


Winnipeg South 59% ± 8% LPC 35% ± 8% CPC 5% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 59.0% 338Canada vote projection | June 1, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Winnipeg South >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 1, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Winnipeg South

LPC 59% ± 8% CPC 35% ± 8% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Winnipeg South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 43% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 41% LPC 40% NDP 15% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 41% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 47% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 52% CPC 33% NDP 10% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 56% CPC 30% NDP 9% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 61% CPC 30% NDP 6% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 61% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 61% CPC 32% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 62% CPC 31% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 62% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 63% CPC 30% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 63% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 64% CPC 29% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 65% CPC 28% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 57% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 56% CPC 38% NDP 4% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 59% CPC 35% NDP 5% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Winnipeg South

LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 1, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 62% LPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 57% LPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 61% CPC 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% CPC <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader
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